🗳️ Elections
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
Live
Resolves Nov 4, 2026PolymarketVolume-weighted avg
3%
No
97%
No (97%)Yes (3%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$16k
Liquidity
$344k
Market intelligence
Polymarket currently prices this at 3%.
About this market
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
All outcomes · Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
62%
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
32%
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
3%
Resolution
Nov 4, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$16k
Liquidity$344k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen