🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥12%
Live
Resolves Feb 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
14%
No
86%
No (86%)Yes (14%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$2k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 14%. Kalshi has moved down 5pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥2%
95%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥4%
94%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥6%
87%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥8%
66%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥10%
39%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥11%
23%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥14%
5%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥16%
4%
Resolution
Feb 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$2k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen