🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥8%
Live
Resolves Feb 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
66%
No
34%
No (34%)Yes (66%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$6k
Liquidity
$11k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 66%. Kalshi has moved up 2pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 8 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥2%
95%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥4%
94%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥6%
87%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥10%
40%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥11%
23%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥12%
14%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥14%
5%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥16%
4%
Resolution
Feb 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$6k
Liquidity$11k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen