🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥6%
Live
Resolves Feb 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
87%
No
13%
No (13%)Yes (87%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$10
Liquidity
$5k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 87%. Kalshi has moved up 5pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥2%
95%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥4%
94%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥8%
66%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥10%
39%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥11%
23%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥12%
14%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥14%
5%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional) — Democrats, ≥16%
4%
Resolution
Feb 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$10
Liquidity$5k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen