🗳️ Elections
Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round)

Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) — At least 42%

Live
Resolves Oct 4, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
49%
No
51%
No (51%)Yes (49%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$3
Liquidity
$493

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 49%. Kalshi has moved down 45pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 42% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round)

Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) — At least 21%
96%
Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) — At least 26%
95%
Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) — At least 29%
95%
Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) — At least 31%
93%
Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) — At least 33%
89%
Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) — At least 39%
87%
Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) — At least 37%
79%
Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) — At least 35%
76%
Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) — At least 47%
30%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
49%
probability of YES
Kalshi
49%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 4, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$3
Liquidity$493
CategoryElections
StatusOpen