🗳️ Elections
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥10%
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
29%
No
71%
No (71%)Yes (29%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$8k
Liquidity
$8k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 29%. Kalshi has moved down 3pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥7%
96%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥1%
95%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥4%
94%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥13%
35%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥16%
20%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥22%
2%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥19%
2%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen