🗳️ Elections
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥16%
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
2%
No
98%
No (98%)Yes (2%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$6k
Liquidity
$2k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 2%. Kalshi has moved down 16pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 16%, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥1%
95%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥4%
94%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥7%
71%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥10%
24%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥13%
14%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥19%
4%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥22%
2%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$6k
Liquidity$2k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen