📊 Macro
How high will unemployment get in 2026?

How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 5.5%

Live
Resolves Jan 8, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
4%
No
96%
No (96%)Yes (4%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$5k
Liquidity
$5k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 4%. Kalshi has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 5.5%, the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · How high will unemployment get in 2026?

How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 4.5%
16%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 4.8%
13%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 5%
11%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 17%
9%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 10%
9%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 6.5%
4%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 6%
4%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 7%
4%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 8%
3%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 12%
3%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 15%
3%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 20%
3%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 9%
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
4%
probability of YES
Kalshi
4%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 8, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen