📊 Macro
How high will unemployment get in 2026?

How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 9%

Live
Resolves Jan 8, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
1%
No
99%
No (99%)Yes (1%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$7k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 1%. Kalshi has moved down 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 9%, the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · How high will unemployment get in 2026?

How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 4.5%
16%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 4.8%
13%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 5%
11%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 17%
9%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 10%
9%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 5.5%
4%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 6.5%
4%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 6%
4%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 7%
4%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 8%
3%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 12%
3%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 15%
3%
How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Above 20%
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
1%
probability of YES
Kalshi
1%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 8, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$7k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen