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📊 Macro
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026 — Above 4.50%

Live
Resolves Jan 4, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
27%
No
73%
No (73%)Yes (27%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$9k
Liquidity
$1k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 27%. Kalshi has moved up 20pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026 — Above 3.50%
99%
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026 — Above 3.75%
99%
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026 — Above 4.00%
94%
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026 — Above 4.25%
6%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
27%
probability of YES
Kalshi
27%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 4, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$9k
Liquidity$1k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen