🎯 Other
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 15
Live
Resolves Feb 1, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
14%
No
86%
No (86%)Yes (14%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$6
Liquidity
$406
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 14%.
About this market
If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 15 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 1
92%
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 3
80%
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 5
68%
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 8
44%
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 12
28%
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 20
11%
Resolution
Feb 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$6
Liquidity$406
CategoryOther
StatusOpen