📊 Macro
Unemployment in September

Unemployment in September — Above 4.8%

Live
Resolves Oct 2, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
38%
No
62%
No (62%)Yes (38%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$106

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 38%. Kalshi has moved up 32pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.8% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Unemployment in September

Unemployment in September — Above 3.7%
99%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.9%
98%
Unemployment in September — Above 3.8%
98%
Unemployment in September — Above 3.9%
95%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.0%
77%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.1%
38%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.2%
10%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.7%
9%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.3%
3%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.6%
3%
Unemployment in September — Above 5.0%
2%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.5%
2%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.4%
2%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
38%
probability of YES
Kalshi
38%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 2, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$106
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen