📊 Macro
Unemployment in September
Unemployment in September — Above 4.2%
Live
Resolves Oct 2, 2026KalshiVolume-weighted avg
14%
No
86%
No (86%)Yes (14%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$259
Liquidity
$13k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 14%. Kalshi has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Unemployment in September
Unemployment in September — Above 3.7%
98%
Unemployment in September — Above 3.8%
95%
Unemployment in September — Above 3.9%
93%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.0%
72%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.1%
42%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.9%
8%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.8%
6%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.3%
6%
Unemployment in September — Above 5.0%
5%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.6%
3%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.7%
3%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.5%
2%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.4%
2%
Resolution
Oct 2, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$259
Liquidity$13k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen