📊 Macro
Unemployment in September
Unemployment in September — Above 4.1%
Live
Resolves Oct 2, 2026KalshiVolume-weighted avg
42%
No
58%
No (58%)Yes (42%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$103
Liquidity
$2k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 42%. Kalshi has moved down 5pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Unemployment in September
Unemployment in September — Above 3.7%
98%
Unemployment in September — Above 3.8%
95%
Unemployment in September — Above 3.9%
93%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.0%
72%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.2%
14%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.9%
8%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.3%
6%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.8%
6%
Unemployment in September — Above 5.0%
5%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.6%
3%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.7%
3%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.5%
2%
Unemployment in September — Above 4.4%
2%
Resolution
Oct 2, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$103
Liquidity$2k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen