🗳️ Elections
2028 popular vote margin of victory?
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Democratic by 4.0% to 4.99%
Live
Resolves May 6, 2029KalshiVolume-weighted avg
6%
No
94%
No (94%)Yes (6%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$1k
Liquidity
$8k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 6%. Kalshi has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 4.00-4.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · 2028 popular vote margin of victory?
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Democratic by 9.0% or more
29%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%
7%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%
7%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99%
6%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Democratic by 3.0% to 3.99%
6%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99%
5%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Democratic by 1.0% to 1.99%
5%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Democratic by 2.0% to 2.99%
5%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99%
3%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Republican by 2.0% to 2.99%
2%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Republican by 0.01% to 0.99%
2%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Republican by 1.0% to 1.99%
2%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Republican by 9.0% or more
1%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Republican by 5.0% to 5.99%
1%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Republican by 8.0% to 8.99%
1%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Republican by 7.0% to 7.99%
1%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Republican by 6.0% to 6.99%
1%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Republican by 3.0% to 3.99%
1%
2028 popular vote margin of victory? — Republican by 4.0% to 4.99%
1%
Resolution
May 6, 2029
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$1k
Liquidity$8k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen