Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 14

Live

Resolves Nov 3, 2026Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

91%

No (91%)Yes (9%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 9%. Kalshi has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 14 in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 9

29%

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 10

22%

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 12

13%

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 16

11%

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 20

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 25

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Avg probability

probability of YES

Kalshi

9%Check

TG WA

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Resolution

Nov 3, 2026

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume—

Liquidity—

CategoryElections

StatusOpen