Supreme Court lets parents sue over Washington trans law?
Market intelligence
Polymarket currently prices this at 63%.
About this market
International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. v. Ferguson (No. 25-840) is a challenge by a group of parents to Washington State laws that allow youth shelters to withhold notice to parents when a minor is seeking gender-affirming care. The United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit held that the parents lack standing to bring the challenge. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on or before July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the Supreme Court of the United States issues an opinion, per curiam decision, or judgment in International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. v. Ferguson or any consolidated case that holds that at least one petitioner has standing to bring at least one of the challenged claims referenced in this case. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying holding will count regardless of whether the Court reverses or vacates the judgment of the Ninth Circuit, remands for further proceedings, or decides the merits of the petitioners' claims, and regardless of how the Court rules on those merits. Where the Court issues a plurality opinion or a fractured decision, this market will resolve based on the Court's judgment: a judgment that reverses or vacates the Ninth Circuit's determination that the petitioners lack standing, as to at least one petitioner, will qualify. This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the Court affirms the judgment that the petitioners lack standing, including on alternative grounds, or if the case and any consolidated case are terminated without a qualifying holding, including by a dismissal as improvidently granted, a vacatur for mootness or other non-merits vacatur or remand that does not rest on a holding that a petitioner has standing, a settlement, a voluntary dismissal, or any other termination without a qualifying holding. If no qualifying ruling has been issued by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, including because the case remains undecided or has been set for re-argument, this market will resolve to "No". Res