When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? — Before Jan 1, 2027

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Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

20%

80%

No (80%)Yes (20%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 20%. Kalshi has moved up 7pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.