🗳️ Elections

Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
40%
No
60%
No (60%)Yes (40%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
Loading...
Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$1k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 40%. Kalshi has moved up 35pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the US agrees to or announces recognition of Argentina's sovereignty over the Falkland Islands before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Elections
4%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Elections
4%
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
Elections
6%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
Elections
15%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
40%
probability of YES
Kalshi
40%Check
TGWA
Create Widget
Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$1k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen