🗳️ Elections
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥4%
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
89%
No
11%
No (11%)Yes (89%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$5k
Liquidity
$6k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 89%. Kalshi has moved up 29pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the margin of victory for No in the 2026 California Proposition 40 election is at or above 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥1%
98%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥7%
31%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥10%
5%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥13%
3%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥16%
2%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥19%
2%
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) — No, ≥22%
1%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$5k
Liquidity$6k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen