Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 5

Closed

Resolves Nov 3, 2026Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

99%

No (1%)Yes (99%)

Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Closed

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 99%. Kalshi has moved up 4pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 5 in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 9

29%

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 10

22%

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 12

13%

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 16

11%

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 20

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 14

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026) — At least 25

Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

99%

probability of YES

Kalshi

99%

TG WA

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Resolution

Nov 3, 2026

closed

Market stats

24h volume—

Liquidity$298

CategoryElections

StatusClosed