🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
32%
No
68%
No (68%)Yes (32%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$7k
Liquidity
$6k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 32%.
About this market
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
60%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
48%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
38%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
36%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
19%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
13%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
11%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
5%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$7k
Liquidity$6k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen