🗳️ Elections
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 4
Live
Resolves Nov 17, 2026KalshiVolume-weighted avg
52%
No
48%
No (48%)Yes (52%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$4k
Liquidity
$12k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 52%. Kalshi has moved down 37pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 4 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 3
93%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 5
32%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 6
30%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 7
7%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 10
2%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 9
1%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 8
1%
Resolution
Nov 17, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$4k
Liquidity$12k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen