Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Nov 16, 2026

Live

Resolves Nov 16, 2026Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

19%

81%

No (81%)Yes (19%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 19%.

About this market

If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Jul 1, 2028

93%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Jan 1, 2029

93%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Jan 1, 2028

92%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Oct 1, 2027

88%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Jul 1, 2027

84%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Apr 1, 2027

79%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Feb 1, 2027

65%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Jan 1, 2027

55%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? — Before Dec 1, 2026

32%

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Avg probability

19%

probability of YES

Kalshi

19%Check

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Resolution

Nov 16, 2026

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume$6k

Liquidity$5k

CategoryElections

StatusOpen