🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate: margin of victory
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2-4%
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
10%
No
90%
No (90%)Yes (10%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$21k
Liquidity
$31k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 10%. Kalshi has moved up 7pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate: margin of victory
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 0-2%
21%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 2-4%
18%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0-2%
14%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 4-6%
14%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 6-8%
12%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, ≥8%
11%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4-6%
4%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, ≥8%
2%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6-8%
1%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$21k
Liquidity$31k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen