🗳️ Elections
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 220
Live
Resolves Nov 17, 2026KalshiVolume-weighted avg
2%
No
98%
No (98%)Yes (2%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$1k
Liquidity
$1k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 2%. Kalshi has moved down 48pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 220 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 170
92%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 175
80%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 180
68%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 185
49%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 190
41%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 195
30%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 200
13%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 205
4%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 210
3%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15) — Above 230
2%
Resolution
Nov 17, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen