🗳️ Elections
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Friedrich Merz
Live
Resolves Jan 2, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
4%
No
96%
No (96%)Yes (4%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$5
Liquidity
$27k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 4%. Kalshi has moved down 2pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Christopher Luxon
46%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Benjamin Netanyahu
18%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Pedro Sánchez
18%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Edi Rama
14%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Sébastien Lecornu
12%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Miguel Díaz-Canel
11%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Rodrigo Paz Pereira
9%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Ahmad al-Sharaa
6%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Narendra Modi
6%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Volodymyr Zelenskyy
6%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Félix Tshisekedi
6%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Cyril Ramaphosa
6%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Denis Sassou Nguesso
5%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Emmanuel Macron
5%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Jens-Frederik Nielsen
5%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Lee Jae Myung
5%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Daniel Noboa
5%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Delcy Rodriguez
4%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Ramzan Kadyrov
4%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
4%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Kim Jong Un
4%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Mette Frederiksen
3%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Mohammed bin Salman
3%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Nayib Bukele
3%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Giorgia Meloni
3%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Javier Milei
2%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
2%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Sanae Takaichi
2%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Xi Jinping
2%
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Claudia Sheinbaum
2%
Resolution
Jan 2, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$5
Liquidity$27k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen