Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Live

Resolves Jan 1, 2028Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

92%

No (8%)Yes (92%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 92%. Kalshi has moved up 41pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Jan 1, 2029

98%

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Jul 1, 2028

97%

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Oct 1, 2027

84%

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Jul 1, 2027

80%

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Apr 1, 2027

74%

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Feb 1, 2027

73%

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Mar 1, 2027

70%

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Jan 1, 2027

47%

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Dec 1, 2026

24%

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Nov 26, 2026

19%

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? — Before Nov 20, 2026

11%

Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

92%

probability of YES

Kalshi

92%Check

TG WA

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Resolution

Jan 1, 2028

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume$1

Liquidity$1

CategoryElections

StatusOpen