🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate: margin of victory
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2-4%
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
11%
No
89%
No (89%)Yes (11%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$11k
Liquidity
$12k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 11%. Kalshi has moved down 3pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate: margin of victory
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 2-4%
23%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 4-6%
19%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 0-2%
18%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0-2%
14%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 6-8%
12%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, ≥8%
9%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4-6%
6%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6-8%
2%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, ≥8%
2%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$11k
Liquidity$12k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen