🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate: margin of victory
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, ≥8%
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
2%
No
98%
No (98%)Yes (2%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$9k
Liquidity
$14k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 2%. Kalshi has moved down 2pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is at or above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate: margin of victory
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 2-4%
22%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 0-2%
22%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 4-6%
15%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, ≥8%
13%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0-2%
13%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — James Talarico, 6-8%
12%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2-4%
8%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4-6%
6%
Texas Senate: margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6-8%
2%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$9k
Liquidity$14k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen