🗳️ Elections
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1) — Above 8
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2026KalshiVolume-weighted avg
3%
No
97%
No (97%)Yes (3%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$2k
Liquidity
$4k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 3%. Kalshi has moved down 11pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 8 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1) — Above 3
98%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1) — Above 4
93%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1) — Above 5
77%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1) — Above 6
44%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1) — Above 7
15%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1) — Above 10
1%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1) — Above 9
1%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$2k
Liquidity$4k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen