🗳️ Elections
Alaska Senate margin of victory
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 4+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
52%
No
48%
No (48%)Yes (52%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$19k
Liquidity
$22k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 52%. Kalshi has moved up 7pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If Mary Peltola wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Alaska Senate margin of victory
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 0.5+ pts
96%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 1+ pts
94%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 2+ pts
93%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 1.5+ pts
92%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 3+ pts
83%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 2.5+ pts
78%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 3.5+ pts
78%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 4.5+ pts
39%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 5+ pts
18%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Dan Sullivan, 2+ pts
3%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 6+ pts
2%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 10+ pts
2%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Dan Sullivan, 6+ pts
1%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Dan Sullivan, 10+ pts
1%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Mary Peltola, 8+ pts
1%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Dan Sullivan, 4+ pts
1%
Alaska Senate margin of victory — Dan Sullivan, 8+ pts
1%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$19k
Liquidity$22k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen