🗳️ Elections
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
19%
No
81%
No (81%)Yes (19%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$71k
Liquidity
$1.3m
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 19%. Kalshi has moved up 4pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2029
76%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2028
72%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2028
57%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2027
46%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Apr 1, 2027
36%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Dec 1, 2026
9%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Nov 1, 2026
6%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Oct 1, 2026
1%
Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$71k
Liquidity$1.3m
CategoryElections
StatusOpen