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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2028

Live
Resolves Jul 1, 2028Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
59%
No
41%
No (41%)Yes (59%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$73
Liquidity
$25k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 59%. Kalshi has moved up 7pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2029
60%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2028
46%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Nov 1, 2027
41%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Dec 1, 2027
40%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Oct 1, 2027
36%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2027
33%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Sep 1, 2027
33%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Aug 1, 2027
32%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jun 1, 2027
24%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before May 1, 2027
18%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Apr 1, 2027
17%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Mar 1, 2027
12%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Feb 1, 2027
8%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
8%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Dec 1, 2026
6%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Nov 1, 2026
2%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
59%
probability of YES
Kalshi
59%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jul 1, 2028
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$73
Liquidity$25k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen