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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2028Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
50%
No
50%
No (50%)Yes (50%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$7k
Liquidity
$40k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 50%. Kalshi has moved up 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2029
65%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2028
63%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Dec 1, 2027
56%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Nov 1, 2027
47%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Oct 1, 2027
39%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Sep 1, 2027
37%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2027
36%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Aug 1, 2027
35%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before May 1, 2027
32%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jun 1, 2027
29%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Apr 1, 2027
26%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Mar 1, 2027
15%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Feb 1, 2027
12%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
8%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Dec 1, 2026
4%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
50%
probability of YES
Kalshi
50%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 1, 2028
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$7k
Liquidity$40k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen