🗳️ Elections
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Dec 1, 2026
Live
Resolves Dec 1, 2026KalshiVolume-weighted avg
9%
No
91%
No (91%)Yes (9%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$3k
Liquidity
$451k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 9%. Kalshi has moved up 1pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2029
68%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2028
66%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2028
55%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2027
41%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Apr 1, 2027
32%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
14%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Nov 1, 2026
5%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Oct 1, 2026
1%
Resolution
Dec 1, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$3k
Liquidity$451k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen