🗳️ Elections
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2029
Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2029KalshiVolume-weighted avg
57%
No
43%
No (43%)Yes (57%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$441
Liquidity
$29k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 57%. Kalshi has moved down 2pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2028
56%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2028
50%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Dec 1, 2027
41%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Nov 1, 2027
41%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Oct 1, 2027
37%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Sep 1, 2027
33%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jul 1, 2027
32%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Aug 1, 2027
32%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jun 1, 2027
24%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Apr 1, 2027
18%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before May 1, 2027
18%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Mar 1, 2027
12%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
8%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Feb 1, 2027
7%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Dec 1, 2026
4%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? — Before Nov 1, 2026
1%
Resolution
Jan 1, 2029
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$441
Liquidity$29k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen