🗳️ Elections
Texas Governor margin of victory
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 4.5+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
28%
No
72%
No (72%)Yes (28%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$2k
Liquidity
$4k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 28%.
About this market
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 4.5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Governor margin of victory
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 0.5+ pts
62%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 1+ pts
59%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 1.5+ pts
56%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 2.5+ pts
48%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 2+ pts
48%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 3+ pts
43%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 3.5+ pts
38%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 4+ pts
34%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 1+ pts
32%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 5+ pts
27%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 6+ pts
20%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 5.5+ pts
19%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 2+ pts
19%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 3+ pts
14%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 7+ pts
14%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 4+ pts
12%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 8+ pts
9%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 9+ pts
9%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 12+ pts
7%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 5+ pts
7%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 15+ pts
5%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 21+ pts
5%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 18+ pts
4%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 6+ pts
3%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 7+ pts
2%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$2k
Liquidity$4k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen