🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 10 to 12%
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
25%
No
75%
No (75%)Yes (25%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$30k
Liquidity
$214k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 25%. Kalshi has moved up 1pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 8 to 10%
30%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 6 to 8%
14%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 12 to 14%
14%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 4 to 6%
6%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 14 to 16%
5%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Republicans win
5%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 2 to 4%
3%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 16% and above
2%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 0 to 2%
2%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$30k
Liquidity$214k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen