🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 10 to 12%

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
22%
No
78%
No (78%)Yes (22%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$1k
Liquidity
$94k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 22%. Kalshi has moved up 4pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
22%
probability of YES
Kalshi
TGWA
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$1k
Liquidity$94k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen