🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Republicans win
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
4%
No
96%
No (96%)Yes (4%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$133k
Liquidity
$1.0m
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 4%. Kalshi has moved down 3pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 8 to 10%
27%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 10 to 12%
24%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 12 to 14%
15%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 6 to 8%
14%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 14 to 16%
8%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 4 to 6%
6%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 16% and above
3%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 2 to 4%
3%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 0 to 2%
1%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$133k
Liquidity$1.0m
CategoryElections
StatusOpen