🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 6 to 8%

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
20%
No
80%
No (80%)Yes (20%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$254
Liquidity
$80k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 20%. Kalshi has moved down 3pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 6 and 8 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 8 to 10%
24%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 10 to 12%
22%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 12 to 14%
10%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 4 to 6%
9%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Republicans win
7%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 14 to 16%
4%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 16% and above
4%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 2 to 4%
3%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 0 to 2%
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
20%
probability of YES
Kalshi
20%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$254
Liquidity$80k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen