🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 6 to 8%
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
15%
No
85%
No (85%)Yes (15%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$1k
Liquidity
$136k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 15%. Kalshi has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 6 and 8 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 8 to 10%
26%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 10 to 12%
25%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 12 to 14%
14%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 4 to 6%
6%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Republicans win
6%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 14 to 16%
5%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 16% and above
3%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 2 to 4%
3%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 0 to 2%
2%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$1k
Liquidity$136k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen