🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 12 to 14%

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
10%
No
90%
No (90%)Yes (10%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$1k
Liquidity
$74k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 10%. Kalshi has moved up 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 12 and 14 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 8 to 10%
24%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 10 to 12%
22%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 6 to 8%
20%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 4 to 6%
9%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Republicans win
7%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 14 to 16%
4%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 16% and above
4%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 2 to 4%
3%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 0 to 2%
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
10%
probability of YES
Kalshi
10%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$1k
Liquidity$74k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen