🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 8 to 10%

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
24%
No
76%
No (76%)Yes (24%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$307
Liquidity
$123k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 24%.

About this market

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 10 to 12%
22%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 6 to 8%
20%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 12 to 14%
10%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 4 to 6%
9%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Republicans win
7%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 14 to 16%
4%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 16% and above
4%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 2 to 4%
3%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 0 to 2%
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
24%
probability of YES
Kalshi
24%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$307
Liquidity$123k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen