🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 2 to 4%
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
3%
No
97%
No (97%)Yes (3%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$2k
Liquidity
$212k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 3%. Kalshi has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 8 to 10%
26%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 10 to 12%
23%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 6 to 8%
15%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 12 to 14%
12%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 4 to 6%
7%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Republicans win
6%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 14 to 16%
6%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 16% and above
5%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 0 to 2%
2%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$2k
Liquidity$212k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen