🗳️ Elections
Closest Senate race in 2026?

Closest Senate race in 2026? — Texas

Live
Resolves Jan 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
14%
No
86%
No (86%)Yes (14%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$400
Liquidity
$41k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 14%. Kalshi has moved down 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Closest Senate race in 2026?

Closest Senate race in 2026? — Iowa
13%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — Ohio
11%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — Michigan
9%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — Nebraska
8%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — Maine
8%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — Alaska
8%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — Kansas
7%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — New Hampshire
6%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — South Carolina
4%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — Florida
3%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — Minnesota
3%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — Idaho
2%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — Montana
2%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — North Carolina
2%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — Georgia
2%
Closest Senate race in 2026? — South Dakota
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
14%
probability of YES
Kalshi
14%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$400
Liquidity$41k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen