🗳️ Elections
US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Dec 1, 2026

Live
Resolves Dec 1, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
7%
No
93%
No (93%)Yes (7%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$3k
Liquidity
$103k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 7%. Kalshi has moved up 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029
32%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2028
24%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Mar 1, 2027
11%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Feb 1, 2027
11%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
8%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Nov 1, 2026
3%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Oct 1, 2026
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
7%
probability of YES
Kalshi
7%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Dec 1, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$3k
Liquidity$103k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen