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US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2028Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
33%
No
67%
No (67%)Yes (33%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$471
Liquidity
$44k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 33%. Kalshi has moved up 6pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029
38%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Mar 1, 2027
19%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Feb 1, 2027
15%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
9%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Dec 1, 2026
6%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Nov 1, 2026
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
33%
probability of YES
Kalshi
33%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 1, 2028
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$471
Liquidity$44k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen