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US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Live
Resolves Jan 20, 2029Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
44%
No
56%
No (56%)Yes (44%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$9k
Liquidity
$32k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 44%. Kalshi has moved up 6pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2028
32%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Mar 1, 2027
20%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Feb 1, 2027
15%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
12%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Dec 1, 2026
10%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
44%
probability of YES
Kalshi
44%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 20, 2029
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$9k
Liquidity$32k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen