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US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Mar 1, 2027

Live
Resolves Mar 1, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
18%
No
82%
No (82%)Yes (18%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$2k
Liquidity
$53k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 18%. Kalshi has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029
48%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2028
41%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Feb 1, 2027
15%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
7%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Dec 1, 2026
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
18%
probability of YES
Kalshi
18%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Mar 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$2k
Liquidity$53k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen