🗳️ Elections
US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Oct 1, 2026

Live
Resolves Oct 1, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
1%
No
99%
No (99%)Yes (1%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$24k
Liquidity
$363k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 1%. Kalshi has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029
32%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2028
24%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Mar 1, 2027
11%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Feb 1, 2027
11%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 1, 2027
8%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Dec 1, 2026
7%
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Nov 1, 2026
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
1%
probability of YES
Kalshi
1%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 1, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$24k
Liquidity$363k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen